So, uh, who wants to be TCU’s starting QB in 2019?
Gary Patterson loves a quarterback competition in name, if not in truth. So he might not love the situation he faces in 2019.
TCU could have four possible options behind center this season, with no clear favorite. That stands in stark contrast to previous seasons, when it has usually been two passers competing for the starting job, and Patterson consistently had a veteran with significant starting experience to rely upon. Making things more complicated is the fact that two of the top competitors for the №1 spot on the depth chart most likely won’t be fully healthy for spring practice. You know, in case there wasn’t already enough uncertainty to induce a Chidi Anagonye stomachache.
Will the Horned Frogs go with an established, predictable veteran? Or will they count on the upside of one of their young, highly touted prospects? Let’s break down the options, roughly in the order of likelihood that they start in Week 1.
Mike Collins, junior
The quarterback formerly known as Michael Collins was aggressively fine last season. He completed 56.4 percent of his passes for 1,059 yards (7.6 yards per attempt) with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His completion percentage was actually lower than Shawn Robinson’s, the man he replaced midway through the season. But when he relieved Robinson against Oklahoma, he seemingly gave the TCU offense a jolt of life as the Frogs put up 24 points and trailed by one possession at halftime.
That was short-lived, though. The Frogs got outscored 24–3 by the Sooners the rest of the way. Then they went 1–2 in their next three games with Collins as the starter against Kansas, Kansas State, and West Virginia. They averaged 16.7 points per game in that stretch, against teams that ranked 104th, 78th, and 96th in the FBS in defensive S&P+, respectively.
And did I mention one of those losses was to Kansas? Because I should mention one of those losses was to Kansas.
Collins then suffered a season-ending ankle injury against Baylor, making his 2018 campaign and his 2019 potential even more difficult to judge. He’s probably a safe option because he has starting experience and knows the offense. But he’s not the exciting choice.
Justin Rogers, redshirt freshman
Justin Rogers is the highest-rated quarterback signee in TCU history, but that distinction was previously held by Robinson, so it might not mean too much.
Rogers suffered a catastrophic knee injury in September 2017. Patterson has said TCU’s medical staff has cleared Rogers’ knee, but he developed a drop foot condition during his recovery that made his situation a lot more complicated.
There’s no standard recovery time for drop foot, and there was some speculation Rogers might not be able to play at all in 2018. He ultimately did get on the field for three snaps in the Cheez-It Bowl, which included a (weirdly kind of impressive) sack.
Rogers looks to have added some muscle to his once slight frame–he’s now listed at 220 pounds after being listed at 210 as a high school senior–and it’s clear that he’s still a great athlete. Besides hitting the truck stick on a linebacker in his first in-game contact in more than a year, he also still has plenty of explosiveness.
But the biggest concern with Rogers isn’t his ability (or lack thereof) to run. He won’t have the speed or the lateral quickness he had in high school, certainly not in 2019 and maybe not ever. But that’s not a huge deal given that he’s more of a pocket passer anyway.
Instead, the most important question is how his knee injury and the drop foot condition have affected his footwork and throwing mechanics. He has to be able to plant and drive off that right leg in order to be accurate and effective. That’s what student assistant and former TCU QB Kenny Hill said the coaches have been trying to work on with Rogers over the last year.
“He’s taken tremendous strides,” Hill told the Star-Telegram’s Drew Davison of Rogers. “In the bowl game, you saw him shrug that one dude off [on a blitz], you saw that first step burst, but his foot wasn’t fully healthy. And him throwing the ball, he’s really had to re-learn a lot of things. He’s been throwing all arm, so this whole year has been growing and getting that feeling back. You can see him start to become more comfortable.”
Having to re-learn how to throw and get rid of any bad habits he developed while he couldn’t properly use his leg as part of his throwing motion is a lot to ask of Rogers, but it’s ultimately going to determine whether he can play at a high level, or even play at all, this season.
Alex Delton, senior
In terms of FBS experience, Kansas State graduate transfer Alex Delton leads the TCU quarterback room. He’s played in more than twice as many games (20) as Collins (8). He also comes from a program in Kansas State that Patterson deeply respects, and he was coached by the legendary Bill Snyder.
However, his skill set doesn’t really fit TCU’s offense very well. His career completion percentage is 56.1, and he’s thrown just 31 more passes than Collins in his career despite playing in 12 more games. Instead, he worked mostly as a power runner in the Wildcats’ old-school offense, racking up 868 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and 11 touchdowns in four seasons.
Sonny Cumbie has shown a willingness to adjust his play-calling when his quarterback has limitations as a passer (hello Grayson Muehlstein), but he’s also been known to stick with his Air Raid principles even when they aren’t working if he thinks he has a quarterback who fits his vision (hello Robinson).
If Cumbie has another option at quarterback that offers even slightly more upside for the passing game, it’s tough to believe he’d rather re-tool his scheme for one year of Delton.
TCU snatching Delton up feels less like grabbing a competitor for the starting job and more like trying to find bodies to fill the room after their real love, Jalen Hurts, spurned them to head to Oklahoma instead.
What I’m saying is: Hurts is Ann. Delton is Fake Ann.
Max Duggan, true freshman
Max Duggan will get reps in spring practice after enrolling early in January, and he put up video game numbers as a high school senior: 66.1 completion percentage for 2,130 passing yards for 24 touchdowns and 3 interceptions; 1,223 rushing yards at 10.8 (!) yards per carry and 25 (!!!) touchdowns.
Sure, he put up those numbers at Lewis Central in Council Bluffs, Iowa, rather than at a Texas high school powerhouse. But still: dang.
What’s working against Duggan? Well there’s the fact that just one true freshman quarterback has started exactly one game for TCU in the Patterson era. That was Robinson, and he only got that start because Hill, the quarterback in front of him on the depth chart, suffered an injury. That feels like the only kind of scenario that could see Duggan get on the field for meaningful snaps this year, especially since the Frogs would love to redshirt him anyway.
So who starts for TCU in 2019? For the first time in a few years, there isn’t an obvious answer. Patterson usually favors the guy with the most starting experience. This year, that would be Delton with six career starts. Collins isn’t far behind with four, and likely would have had two more if he stayed healthy. Yet the Frogs have two potential quarterbacks of the future on campus in Rogers and Duggan, and they may be a solid quarterback away from being Big 12 title contenders.
Rogers would be the prohibitive favorite if he was healthy, and he does have seven more months to make progress in his recovery. But without a clear, predictable time frame for him to get back to full strength, Collins and Duggan can’t be dismissed. And Delton wouldn’t have left Kansas State if he didn’t believe he at least had a chance at the starting job.
That uncertainty is why the TCU quarterback competition will be so intriguing this year. And that’ll be a first.
