TCU’s season doesn’t just depend on the QB (but finding a QB sure would help)
The very definitive 2019 TCU Football preview.
TCU is heading into its eighth year in the Big 12, and every year thus far has seemed to follow one of two scripts:
- Script A: The Horned Frogs field a pretty well-balanced team that can make big plays on both sides of the ball. One year the offense is better (2015). Another it’s the defense (2017). Maybe both units are among the best in the country (2014). But they have enough talent and experience on either side to win double-digit games and compete for the conference title
- Script B: The offense drags down a good or even great defensive unit, and the Frogs are left struggling to reach bowl eligibility by the end of the season (2012, 2016, 2018), possibly missing the postseason altogether (2013).
Heading into 2019, the Frogs look poised for another great year on defense. So history says the offense just needs to be good, not spectacular, for TCU to have a shot at reaching the Big 12 Championship Game.
How do the Frogs get to that level, especially after an erratic performance in 2018? The easy answer is improved quarterback play. In 2014 and 2015, Trevone Boykin put together two of the best seasons in school history for a quarterback as he helped propel TCU into the College Football Playoff conversation. In 2017, Kenny Hill improved dramatically, setting the program record for completion percentage in a season, as he helped lead the Frogs to the conference title game.
So it’s easy, and true, to say quarterback play is the most significant concern for the Frogs in 2019. However, both Boykin’s and Hill’s careers are proof that the performance of the rest of the roster matters a whole lot too.
Boykin’s 2014 campaign was buoyed by a deep group of receivers and one of Patterson’s most athletic, opportunistic defenses ever. Hill’s 2017 season was the epitome of a complete team effort, with a balanced, efficient offense complementing a defense that suffocated opponents with regularity. In the same way, how the Frogs fare this season depends on the passers, yes, but not just the passers.
Let’s take a look at the full picture for TCU this season, and how the Frogs might be able to get back from barely making a bowl game to Big 12 title contention. (But, yeah, we’re going to talk about the quarterbacks.)
Offense: Quarterback isn’t the only question, but it is the biggest.
There are a few potential problems on the TCU offense this season, including depth at receiver, the availability of both senior running backs, and whether the offensive line can make significant improvements.
However, getting even just competent production from the quarterbacks might be enough to cover a multitude of other problems, especially after how the passers dragged the whole team down in 2018.
TCU ranked №91 in offensive S&P+ last season, and while it wasn’t particularly good on the ground, the offense was uniquely inept through the air.
Shawn Robinson was inconsistent at his best and a turnover machine at his worst over seven starts. He didn’t have the accuracy to get first downs with quick passes, and he couldn’t control his arm strength well enough to make defenses fear the vertical passing game. The result was a passing attack that was neither efficient (№97 in passing marginal efficiency) nor explosive (№71 in passing marginal explosiveness). About the only thing the Frogs could do effectively was throw screen passes.
Gary Patterson finally pulled an injured Robinson against Oklahoma, and TCU spent the back half of the season asking Mike Collins and Grayson Muehlstein to drag them to bowl eligibility.
Robinson has since transferred to Missouri, leaving the Frogs with what seemed at one point to be the most interesting battle at the position since Patterson took over as head coach. But the race quickly narrowed to two frontrunners, and not the ones many people expected.
Kansas State transfer Alex Delton has been the leading candidate for the starting job since spring practice. Picking him would definitely fit Patterson’s M.O. of deferring to the quarterback with the most starting experience, and the head coach has praised him for his decision-making since he got on campus. However, he comes from a more option-heavy system at Kansas State where he couldn’t hold on to the starting quarterback job, and in the rare instances when he was asked to throw for the Wildcats, completed just 56.1 percent of his passes. He does have great running ability though, which can absolutely change the complexion of a game. His 158 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns against UCLA in the 2017 Cactus Bowl helped the Wildcats cruise to a 35–17 win. He had 286 total yards (144 passing, 142 rushing) and 4 total touchdowns (1 passing, 3 rushing) against Oklahoma earlier that season before the Sooners pulled out a last-minute 42–35 win.
The other quarterback to separate himself from the rest of the group, according to Patterson, has been true freshman Max Duggan.
Duggan is a 4-star recruit from Council Bluffs (Iowa) Lewis Central. Per 247Sports, he was the №5 dual-threat quarterback in the country, the type of quarterback TCU has typically favored under co-offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie. He put up great passing and rushing numbers as a high school senior: 66.1 percent completion rate for 2,130 yards, 24 touchdowns and 3 interceptions to go with 1,223 rushing yards (10.8 yards per attempt) and 25 touchdowns. And he has the arm strength and accuracy to possibly open up TCU’s vertical passing game, something the Frogs have desperately needed the last few years.
Patterson hasn’t ruled out the idea of Duggan starting at some point this season, but his comments make him seem more amenable to the freshman sitting for a few games rather than starting in the season opener. It’s also worth considering that while the coaching staff has raved about what Duggan has shown during the offseason, he struggled during the only spring scrimmage that was open to the public, often under-throwing his receivers.
Behind Duggan is Collins, who has the most experience in TCU’s system and still brings the running ability Cumbie generally likes to have in his quarterbacks. But the former Penn transfer was uninspiring in his limited reps for the Frogs in 2018, completing 56.4 percent of his passes for 1,059 yards with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. The Frogs were 2–2 in games he started. One of those wins was a one-point victory at home against Delton and the Wildcats, and the other was at Baylor where Collins suffered a season-ending injury, leaving Muehlstein to lead the team to victory. Now he’s been sidelined once more by a bone bruise in his foot, and it’s not clear when he’ll be available again.
Justin Rogers had been the fourth quarterback in the rotation during camp. He was the highest-rated quarterback signee in TCU history and is probably the most talented of the group, but he’s still working back from the drop foot condition that kept him off the field for most of last year. At Big 12 media days, Patterson said the redshirt freshman is about “90 percent” healthy, but they are still waiting for the nerves in his foot to fully “wake up.” He reiterated at the start of preseason practices that Rogers is closer than ever to full health. Whether that means his throwing motion, mobility, and footwork will be where they need to be is another matter. TCU doesn’t seem in any rush to get him on the field before he’s ready, but he could very well end up as the third quarterback if Collins is out for any length of time, and last year proved the third-string quarterback can become first-string really quick with bad injury luck.
The NCAA denied Ohio State transfer Matthew Baldwin’s waiver request for immediate eligibility. He’s appealing the decision, as he should, given that his fellow former Buckeye Tate Martell was granted eligibility following his transfer to Miami (Fla.) because…reasons. But for now, that denial means he’s out of the race.
All of Patterson’s comments during the offseason have pointed to Delton being the starter when the season opens while leaving open the possibility of Duggan taking over later in the year. That would have been wild to predict in January, but it’s the reality right now. There are basically two ways to look at that.
- The optimistic view would be that starting an experienced, fifth-year senior at quarterback should mean a high floor for the offense, especially if Cumbie and co-offensive coordinator Curtis Luper can build game plans that capitalize on Delton’s ability to run the ball. The optimist would say Hill’s 2017 season is proof Cumbie and Luper can adapt the Air Raid to hide a quarterback’s weaknesses and create a highly efficient, more run-oriented offense. If TCU can just be consistent and put enough points on the board to support what should be a stellar defense, especially in a year when much of the Big 12 may be in flux with new coaches, that might be good enough to compete for the Big 12 title. It also gives the Frogs the flexibility to move on to Duggan when he’s ready rather than throwing him into the fray immediately.
- The pessimistic view would argue that while TCU made its offense work with Hill’s limitations in 2017, Hill’s body of work as a passer heading into that season was far more impressive than Delton’s is now. That may mean the Frogs wind up wasting some or all of the last year of Darius Anderson, Sewo Olonilua and Lucas Niang (and most likely Jalen Reagor) on a quarterback who won’t be able to get first downs with consistency. The pessimist would also say that if you believe your quarterback of the future is on the roster, taking valuable reps away from him in favor of Delton makes little sense when your first three FBS matchups appear to be very winnable games against teams projected 58th (Purdue), 85th (SMU), and 107th (Kansas) in S&P+.
Patterson and Cumbie have ignored popular opinion on quarterback decisions before, and it’s turned out well. They stuck with Boykin in 2014 despite fans and media clamoring to see Matt Joeckel. They stuck with Hill in 2017 despite fans and media clamoring to see Robinson. (Guilty.) Maybe rolling with Delton will yield the same results. Or maybe one of the young quarterbacks will step in at some point and blow everyone away. Or maybe the quarterback play will be mediocre-to-bad once again and drag an otherwise talented, competent offense into the gutter. Let’s find out together!
But contrary to what the bulk of this preview to this point might make you believe, there are other players on TCU’s roster besides the quarterbacks. So let’s talk about those players.
There is one unassailable bright spot on the TCU offense this year: Reagor.
Reagor had 72 receptions (№2 in school history) for 1,061 yards (№2) and 9 touchdowns (t-№5) in 2018, adding 2 rushing touchdowns for good measure. And he did that in TCU’s worst year for quarterback play in a long time. He is one of the three best receivers in the Big 12 this season, maybe the best, and is already being projected as a first-round prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft.
The offense is probably going to run through Reagor, regardless of who the quarterback is. And that’s how it should be. He’ll make plays as a pass-catcher, but expect him to carry the ball on sweeps, out of the backfield, and as a wildcat quarterback as well. He’s the best player on the offense, maybe on the whole team. Just get him the ball and let him be the best athlete on the field. It’s not that complicated.
Taye Barber is likely the second option at receiver. He flashed a lot of promise as a freshman, posting the highest catch rate (71.1 percent) of any TCU player with more than 30 targets en route to 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. After him though, it’s not clear who the next best guy is.
Derius Davis was impressive in the slot last season, albeit in limited snaps. Te’Vailance Hunt was a highly touted recruit but didn’t make a big difference as a freshman thanks to injuries. John Stephens Jr. and Mikel Barkley may be two of the most talented receivers on the roster, but they need to clean up their trouble with drops. TreVontae Hights can be a vertical threat (30.3 yards per catch in 2018) but has never had a featured role in the passing game. Dylan Thomas has been a solid role player throughout his career, but it’s unclear if he can be more than that.
The Frogs’ best offenses under Cumbie (2014, 2015, 2017) have had at least three go-to targets, and sometimes more. This year they definitely have one, and probably two. Finding a third wideout who can make life easier for the quarterback will be key.
One position that has no lack of talent and depth is running back. The question is just how much of it will be available. Anderson can be an all-conference-caliber player when he’s healthy, but he’s missed significant time due to injury over his career. The status of Olonilua, who’s coming off a career-high 635 yards in 2018, is unclear after his marijuana arrest in May, but expect him to face a suspension for at least one game. If either of them miss significant time, that means a lot more reps for Emari Demercado and two blue-chip freshmen: Daimarqua Foster and Darwin Barlow.
Foster put up video game numbers at Wichita Falls (Texas) Hirschi last year: 2,797 rushing yards (11.1 yards per carry) and 41 touchdowns. And absurdly enough, those numbers were actually down from his junior season. He’s joined by Barlow, who racked up similarly outrageous stats (2,366 rushing yards on 11.5 yards per carry and 42 touchdowns) as he helped power Newton (Texas) to a state title last season.
That’s a pretty stacked backfield, regardless of who’s available when. The running backs just need competent blocking in front of them to make a significant impact, and there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about that in 2019.
The Frogs bring back all five starters on an offensive line that was solid if unspectacular in 2018. Niang is an All-Big 12 tackle. According to Pro Football Focus, he didn’t give up a single sack in 2018.
The rest of the unit has potential too. Cordel Iwuagwu has proven to be a very reliable starter, as demonstrated by how much the Frogs struggled when he got hurt in 2018. Austin Myers and Anthony McKinney are probably TCU’s two best athletes among the offensive linemen, and another year of experience should help them convert that talent into better results. Finally, Kellton Hollins has been a pretty consistent center and was a team captain in each of his 11 starts last year.
That group started most of last season together, and it’s all back for 2019. Continuity alone could be enough to help it grow and improve into one of the better lines in the league, but there are a couple young players who could challenge for spots as well. Coy McMillon, a sophomore, topped the depth chart at center after spring practice and has worked with the first-team offense during preseason practices. Wes Harris, a former 4-star recruit, showed some potential at guard when he got the opportunity in 2018. Expect tight ends Artayvious Lynn, Carter Ware and Pro Wells to lend some help as blockers as well.
Last year, TCU was №54 nationally in opportunity rate (percentage of carries where the line produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner), №58 in standard down line yards per carry, and №13 in sack rate. That’s a great starting point for pass blocking, and it’s not far from decent in run blocking. The Frogs need to continue to develop up front, and that’s not a given. But if they do, that should significantly raise the ceiling for the offense.
Defense: Conditions are right for Gary Patterson to field one of his best units ever.
The 2018 TCU defense was one of Patterson’s best units since taking over as head coach. It just happened to be overshadowed by some offensive inadequacies.
The Frogs were №16 in the country in defensive S&P+ last season. They led the Big 12 in total defense (338.3 yards per game), third-down defense (32.4%), yards per play (4.8), passing yards per attempt (6.4), and pass efficiency allowed (117.0), and they ranked second in the league in points allowed per play (0.331).
TCU lost two NFL draft picks at defensive end in Ben Banogu and L.J. Collier and one of the best linebackers of the Patterson era in Ty Summers, so those two positions are definitely a concern. However, between what the Frogs bring back and who is returning from injury, they have the potential to be even better as a unit in 2019.
The defense’s biggest addition of the offseason was the return of defensive tackle Ross Blacklock from an Achilles injury. He started all 14 games as a freshman in 2017 and was a big part of why the Frogs ranked №7 in rushing S&P+ on defense that season. They were still good without him in 2018, ranking №27. However, his size and ability to consume blockers can wreck run plays before they even start and free up defenders in the back seven to make tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Getting him back will make life so much easier for everyone else on that side of the ball, especially if he’s anywhere close to as athletic as Patterson claims coming off that injury.
Joining Blacklock at tackle is Corey Bethley, who racked up 5.0 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss on his way an All-Big 12 honorable mention in 2018. Throw in Terrell Cooper, who was solid as a redshirt freshman, and freshman Karter Johnson (listed at 6-foot-3 and 302 pounds), and TCU has the makings of one of its best defensive tackle groups ever.
Defensive end isn’t quite as stacked after losing two first-team All-Big 12 selections in Banogu and Collier. Yet Ochaun Mathis could be better than either of them by the time his collegiate career is over, according to Patterson. The redshirt freshman still needs to add some weight to his impressive frame (listed at 6-foot-5, 235 pounds), but Patterson hasn’t raved about a defensive end’s potential this much since Devonte Fields’ freshman year. Mathis will probably hold down one of the defensive end spots opposite some combination of South Carolina transfer Shameik Blackshear, former 4-star recruit Adam Plant and JUCO transfer Parker Workman. True freshman Colt Ellison, who has surprised everyone with his recovery from a major knee injury last year, could even push his way into the rotation.
That group doesn’t have to produce any all-conference players. With Blacklock and Bethley occupying the attention of opposing offensive lines, Mathis and co. should merely have to win one-on-one matchups in order to disrupt opposing quarterbacks. And if one of those guys can develop into the kind of pass rusher Banogu was, even better.
Linebacker is probably the biggest area of concern for the TCU defense in terms of depth. Garret Wallow has the strong-side spot locked up, and he has the ability to flex to safety when needed, which the Frogs value highly. After 72 tackles and 5.5 tackles for loss at safety in 2018, he’ll have the opportunity to make even more plays this season.
Montrel Wilson was expected to start at middle linebacker, but injuries have once again sidelined him, and he has apparently left the program. That could put true freshman Dee Winters in line for the starting job when the season opens. He’s an athletic, fast player with experience playing multiple positions. In other words, he has all the characteristics Patterson prizes, and the head coach recently singled him out as one of the breakout stars of preseason camp. But his lack of experience could lead to some glitches and growing pains over the course of his first collegiate season.
After that, the third and fourth spots in the rotation could seemingly go to anyone. Ben Wilson likely would have competed for one of them, but he’s reportedly going to be sidelined by an unspecified injury until October, according to 247Sports’ Jeremy Clark. La’Kendrick Van Zandt, a former 4-star recruit at safety, is getting some work at linebacker, and Patterson has a knack for converting safeties into great players at the position. DeMauryon Holmes made plays on special teams last year as a freshman, so he could be in line for more reps. Four-star signee Dylan Jordan has impressed Patterson with how quickly he’s picked up the defense, so he could get the opportunity for snaps early. Freshman Wyatt Harris has also turned heads in preseason camp after moving back from defensive end to linebacker because of all the injuries.
The linebackers carry a diverse set of responsibilities in Patterson’s defense. They have to be able to make their run fits. They’re often asked to spy or rush the quarterback. And they frequently have to cover running backs and receivers in space, especially in pass-happy Big 12 play. Wallow can definitely do all of that. Winters has the athleticism to do all of it, but he’s an unproven commodity. Injuries have already thinned the Frogs out behind those two. Any more attrition would create a true weakness for what should otherwise be an excellent front six.
Fortunately for the linebackers, they will be supported by what may be the strongest TCU secondary in years.
Leading that secondary will be strong safety Innis Gaines, who comes back after he missed most of last season. He has a very particular set of skills. Skills that make him a nightmare for offenses in the Big 12.
He’s an enforcer in the run game, making 6.5 tackles for loss last season in less than six full games. But he’s also a ball hawk, posting 6 pass breakups in those limited snaps. His well-rounded game is very reminiscent of Derrick Kindred, another Patterson safety who laid out punishing hits as well as making big plays in coverage.
Trevon Moehrig is expected to start at free safety after an impressive freshman season. The 6-foot-2, former 4-star recruit brings length and athleticism that the Frogs haven’t had in a while at that position. He was voted special teams MVP by his teammates in 2018, but he made his biggest plays when he got the chance to work with the first-team defense. In his first collegiate start against Oklahoma, he had seven tackles and a tackle for loss. In his second start, against Baylor, he grabbed his first career interception. He also has experience at corner, which could be a great asset for the Frogs if they suffer any injuries at that position.
The weak safety spot is expected to go to senior Vernon Scott. He may not be the most talented member of the group, but experience counts for a lot when playing safety in Patterson’s scheme. Fill in the depth chart with talented young players the likes of Van Zandt, Atanza Vongor, and Ar’Darius Washington, and that’s a dangerous rotation.
The TCU defense’s best position group in terms of the starters might be cornerback. The Frogs boasted two of the best corners in the Big 12 last season, and they’re both back for their senior year: Jeff Gladney and Julius Lewis.
Gladney was first in the Big 12 in passer rating allowed (46.9) and coverage snaps per reception (16.5), according to PFF, and he led the team with 14 pass breakups and 2 interceptions. He also ranked №13 on Bruce Feldman’s college football freaks list for The Athletic, thanks to his combination of strength (620 squat) and speed (4.34 40-yard dash).
Were it not for Gladney, Lewis would probably get more hype as one of the best corners in the league. He gave up one reception in every 15.4 coverage snaps last year, per PFF, which ranked second in the Big 12 behind Gladney. He grabbed 2 picks of his own, tying Gladney for the team lead.
That’s a dynamic duo in the starting lineup. The only question is depth at the position, especially after sophomore Noah Daniels was lost for the year during preseason practices thanks to an unspecified injury. The pressure will be on JUCO transfer Tony Wallace, as well as underclassmen Hidari Ceasar and Donovann Collins to provide some quality snaps in TCU’s nickel and dime packages.
Special Teams: It’s gonna be better! (And it would be really hard to be worse.)
TCU ranked 115th out of 130 FBS teams last year in special teams S&P+. Just one year earlier, the Frogs ranked ninth. What changed?
Personnel-wise, not much. The Frogs had the same top two kickers in Jonathan Song and Cole Bunce and the same top two punters in Adam Nunez and Andrew David. The only significant change among special teams personnel was the loss of long snapper Lucas Gravelle, which admittedly looks like a bigger deal in retrospect, but not drop-106-spots-in-the-rankings big.
The real difference was in the volume of field goal attempts TCU had to kick because of failures in the red zone. The Frogs scored 60 touchdowns and attempted 15 field goals in 2017. Last year, they scored 38 touchdowns and attempted 21 field goals.
And as the Frogs were forced to settle for more field goals, they also made a lower percentage of them. Song was 9-of-12 in 2018 after going a perfect 8-for-8 the year prior. Bunce dropped from 6-of-7 to 4-of-9. TCU needs better production from its kickers this season, but it also needs to convert more of its scoring opportunities into touchdowns.
Bunce is expected to be out for the year after being struck by a car while he was riding his scooter. That most likely leaves Song and freshman Griffin Kell as the main competitors for the starting job. Whoever wins it will have to offer the Frogs some reliability in the kicking game.
The Frogs also need to improve in their kickoff and punt coverage. The average starting field position for TCU’s opponents in 2019 was the 29.9 yard line, which ranked 79th nationally. That’s where new Australian punter Jordy Sandy comes in. He was the №1 punter in Australia and the №5 punter overall in the 2019 recruiting class, according to 247Sports. If he can consistently flip the field, it should give the Frogs more margin for error on both sides of the ball than they had in 2018.
Reagor is expected to be the lead return man again. And if the Frogs want to protect his health, they could hand return duties over to Davis after he flashed some potential last year, including a 73-yard punt return touchdown in the season opener. If there’s one things TCU does not lack, it’s speed, baby.
Patterson does some of his best work coming off disappointing seasons. So it’s reasonable to think another bounce-back campaign could be on the way in 2019.
The Frogs have enough talent on offense, including nine former blue-chip recruits on the projected two-deep, to be really good on that side of the ball. If the quarterback play can just be steady, the talent at other positions should be able to elevate the game of whoever is throwing passes. The defense boasts some of TCU’s best athletes in years at multiple positions. The depth at a couple spots is concerning, but the starting 11 could be one of Patterson’s best units all-time.
The schedule lines up pretty well, too. The Frogs get a bye before a tricky road trip to Purdue, and they could very well be 4–0 heading to Iowa State on Oct. 5. Then they get another bye before traveling to Kansas State, followed by a home date with a young Texas team on Oct. 26. After scraping to bowl eligibility at the very end of the regular season in 2018, the Frogs could feasibly hit six wins before November starts if things go well.
Then comes the toughest stretch of the year, with three road games (at Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, at Oklahoma) crowded around a rivalry game at home against Baylor, all in the span of four weeks. However, the Cowboys will be breaking in a new quarterback, and the Red Raiders are in Year One under new head coach Matt Wells. TCU will close out the season at home against West Virginia, a team with another first-year coach in Neal Brown, on Black Friday.
Patterson is betting that with that schedule and personnel, a major improvement from last year’s 7–6 campaign is absolutely possible. And he’s betting the Frogs won’t necessarily need a dynamic quarterback to do it. If that bet turns out well, he’ll probably be collecting another haul of coach-of-the-year awards in a few months. Then maybe later on in the year, he’ll decide he does have a dynamic quarterback on the roster who can be trusted to run the offense. That might be a riskier bet, but it would be one with a bigger potential payoff.
